The first half of this month has seen some useful rains in our regions mainly in the Riverina and NE Victoria, But north of Wagga, many places has seen less than 5 mms.
Coonabarabran has recorded a paltry 0.5 mms and since the start of winter only 12.2 mms has fallen . This is the driest June to mid July period in Coonabarabran since 1970 and the 4th driest such period in 138 years.
The other drier such periods were in 1883 and 1940. Despite the near record warm July nights in Out back QLD 10 days ago, heavy frosts have been a feature on most days since the end of June in our regions.
Few places in Outback QLD have recorded above average rain for July ; at Mitchell and Roma. The MSL pressure pattern has been gradually changing this month from the intense high pressures of June and currently a deep complex low is approaching and this will bring further rains to Victoria and the Riverina but only light falls further northwards.
This deep low will also bring the bleakest conditions this week with snowfalls extending well north to Glen Innes. The 3rd week of July usually brings the worst weather conditions in our regions.
A widespread rain event is not expected until about the 10th August. Sea surface temperatures have continued to be above normal off SE of Australia, resulting in Macquarie Island , 1500 kms south of Hobart having it's warmest April to June in 69 years of records.
It was the wettest June at Macquarie Island since 1993 which did lead to a major flood event in October 1993, but this time next October a flood event is not expected. The winter of 1993 in our regions was much milder than normal and a low incidence of frosts that winter.