The resource manager for northern Victoria has announced the first seasonal determinations for the new water year.
The Murray system starts 2018/19 with a seasonal determination of 41 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS), while the Goulburn and Loddon systems both start with 32 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system starts 2018/19 with a seasonal determination of 100 per cent HRWS and the Broken and Bullarook systems both start 2018/19 with 0 per cent HRWS.
Resource manager Mark Bailey said after a dry and warm autumn, inflows to the major storages in the historically wetter months have been low so far.
"Northern Victorian catchments were very dry, but we have started to see a response to rain in recent weeks," Dr Bailey said.
"This means we are more likely to see run-off entering the storages when rain falls. We need more rain to increase storage levels and the seasonal determinations."
The risk of spill in Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems are all above the 10 per cent threshold needed to declare a low risk of spill.
The risk of spill in the Murray system during 2018/19 is about 59 per cent, while the risk of spill in the Goulburn system is about 12 per cent and the Campaspe system has a 24 per cent risk.