The toll road operator on Thursday said it expects to distribute 53 cents per share in FY2023, 30 per cent higher than in 2021/22 but under consensus estimates of 60 cents.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Owen Birrell said in a note that the distribution guidance "looks very underwhelming".
"Clearly, we'll see how the operations go during the year and obviously we hope we do better," chief executive Scott Charlton told analysts.
"Certainly there's plenty of flexibility with capital releases and other things.
"I can understand why people are disappointed," Mr Charlton added a little later.
"But you can also understand why the company might be looking at it potentially on the conservative side, given that we're coming out of the COVID period."
At 1.57pm AEST, Transurban shares were down 3.8 per cent to a four-week low of $14.10.
Transurban took in $3.4 billion in revenue in FY22, up six per cent from the prior year. Of that $2.3 billion was from tolls. Most of the rest was from construction.
The company declared a $16 million profit from continuing operations, compared to a $287 million loss the year before.
Mr Charlton said while toll traffic was broadly flat year-on-year, given COVID-19 travel restrictions and floods in Queensland and NSW, it rebounded in the June quarter as movement increased and more motorists headed to the airport.
There's was also impacts from Omicron and the flu in July, but overall traffic performance was solid, with August so far looking positive for further improvements, Mr Charlton said.
"We also continue to observe people generally favour private transport as the preferred option to move around cities for work and leisure, and an increasing number starting to travel overseas," he said.
In a conference call with analysts, Mr Charlton cited a survey the company commissioned of more than 5000 Australians, Americans and Canadians in which nearly one in four respondents said they had shifted their mode of transport for commuting since the start of the pandemic.
Some of that may have started because of health concerns given the pandemic, but more flexible work arrangements may mean its a permanent shift, Mr Charlton said.
The survey also found just 14 per cent of Transurban's road tolls users are commuters. Most motorists use its toll roads infrequently - for going to the airport, heading away on holiday or other reasons such as running errands.
Mr Charlton on Tuesday visited Melbourne's West Gate Tunnel Project, which is about 42 per cent complete. The four kilometre tunnel is set to open in 2025, providing an alternative to the West Gate Bridge.
"It's an amazing project. Everything is just progressing at pace now. A lot of activity and it's just going to transform the road network in Melbourne," he said.
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