About 44 per cent of Victorian producers have an optimistic outlook on the next 12 months (more than double September’s figure) and a further 43 per cent expect little change to current conditions.
Rabobank regional manager for southern Victoria Deborah Maskell-Davies said strong commodity prices and great seasonal conditions were outweighing any concerns farmers had about international markets and the economy.
Ms Maskell-Davies said the fact the COVID-19 restrictions had eased in Victoria and life was returning to normal for many people would also be contributing to the improved sentiment.
The survey, completed last month, found the number of farmers expecting conditions to improve in the coming 12 months more than doubled to 39 per cent (up from 16 per cent), while half of those surveyed expect little change to current conditions.
Ms Maskell-Davies said beef sector confidence had been spurred on by extraordinary returns in 2020, which continued to exceed industry expectations.
The number of farmers expecting conditions to worsen now stands at just 10 per cent, well down from 33 per cent with that view three months ago.
For those, overseas markets/economies were the most significant concern (nominated by 58 per cent), while China trade relations were registering as an increasing worry (cited by 20 per cent, up from 10 per cent last quarter).
Ms Maskell-Davies said it had been an incredible year for stud stock sales, which were not affected by COVID-19 uncertainty or restrictions.
Confidence strengthened in all regions of Victoria, but farmers in the Murray Goulburn Valley were the most upbeat about their prospects, with 61 per cent expecting an improvement in conditions over the year ahead.
Confidence also increased in the Wimmera/Mallee, where cropping conditions have picked up, and south-west Victoria, where sheep sentiment is improving.
Ms Maskell-Davies said dairy farmers were having a terrific season, with good seasonal conditions, lower water prices for irrigators, the opportunity to replenish fodder stocks and low grain prices all helping keep production costs low, combining with good milk prices.
Sheep sentiment has also been bolstered by the season, with 60 per cent of Victoria’s sheep graziers expecting little change in the current conditions, while 28 per cent expect an improvement — up from seven per cent with that view in the previous quarter.