The forecast increase is largely driven by good soil moisture levels in northern NSW and Queensland, as well as a “positive gross margin outlook” for most crop types.
Victoria, which has been impacted by drought in many western parts of the state, is expected to see cropping area edge up only fractionally.
Report author, RaboResearch senior analyst Vitor Pistoia, said Australia’s 2025-26 winter cropping area could be the largest on record if a seasonal break comes soon in South Australia and western Victoria.
“Summer rainfall in Queensland and northern NSW was above average, leading to flooding in some cropping regions and this may delay sowing, but is supportive for another season of large sowing areas.
“WA’s southern cropping areas also received timely rainfall to have a good start to the season,” Mr Pistoia said.
“Other cropping regions around the country though, did not get the same summer luck. Soil-moisture levels are generally insufficient, especially in South Australia, western parts of Victoria and southern NSW.”
NSW was a “mixed bag”, the report said, with positive soil moisture in the northern parts of the state, after a wet summer, driving expansion, while cropping areas in southern regions have been impacted by low soil moisture levels.
Overall though, cropped hectares in the state are projected to increase this season by 1.6 per cent to 6.83 million hectares.
Dry weather in the western parts of the state saw cropping programs across Victoria diversified this season, the report said.
“While some farmers are going for a ‘high input, high return’ approach, with crop rotation edging towards an evenly split ratio of canola and cereal cropping area, others are still using crop rotation as a tool for mitigating risk, with pulses and hay in the cropping mix as well,” Mr Pistoia said.
Overall, Victorian cropping area is expected to increase just 0.1 per cent on the previous season, to 3.61 million hectares.
17°C