In its third quarter Global Beef Quarterly, the bank’s RaboResearch division says second quarter Australian cattle slaughter numbers were up 10 per cent year-on-year and with heavier carcase weights, this meant production volumes were up 11 per cent YOY for the quarter, setting a new record.
June was a new record volume for Australian beef exports at 134,596 tonnes shipped weight, but volumes in July jumped a further 11 per cent to 150,435 tonnes swt — the highest monthly volume ever recorded.
Report lead author RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said export volumes for the year to the end of July were up 17 per cent, with volumes to the United States up 23 per cent, China up 43 per cent and South Korea up nine per cent. Japan was one of the few markets with a contraction, down 14 per cent.
“Given current Australian cattle inventory and seasonal conditions, we believe production volumes will continue at current levels, allowing exports to maintain their strong volumes,” he said.
Mr Gidley-Baird said the Australian market waited to see the impact of additional US tariffs on Brazil and whether that reduced Brazilian exports to the US and resulted in increased demand for Australian product.
The Rabobank report said geopolitics and seasonal conditions were shaping global beef trade flows.
“Global cattle prices keep rising as global production volumes are contracting,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“Imports from Brazil into the US were up 107 per cent compared to last year in the first half of 2025, but higher tariffs will have a material impact on the trade between Brazil and the US.
“In Europe, the tight market is also attracting higher imports.”
Global cattle prices all continued their rise through quarter two, the report said.
“Northern Hemisphere countries continue to stand out at record prices,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“But prices in the US and Canada moderated in July, suggesting some of the heat is going out of the market.”
Meanwhile, he said, prices in Southern Hemisphere countries continued to increase.
“The reduced volumes of beef in the North American market, plus what appears to be a slight improvement in the Chinese market have generated stronger demand for Southern Hemisphere beef suppliers. This demand is now flowing through to cattle prices.”
US tariffs and Brazil’s beef trade
Mr Gidley-Baird said the latest round of US tariffs included an additional 40 per cent on the already existing 10 per cent and 26.4 per cent on Brazilian beef imports.
“Brazil supplied a record volume of beef into the US in the first half of 2025 and RaboResearch believes this additional tariff will have a material impact on the trade between Brazil and the US,” he said.
“But nearly a month after the US began applying further import tariffs on Brazilian beef, shipments to the US have remained relatively stable even after the tariffs have taken effect.
“Projections of rising live cattle prices in Brazil for the second half of the year may explain the current appetite from American importers for Brazilian beef, but RaboResearch believes the volume the US imports from Brazil may drop an estimated 10,000 tonnes to 15,000 tonnes per month as we progress through the remainder of the year.”
