The Federal Government's agriculture forecaster's latest outlook, which was revealed at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences Outlook conference last week, shows overall farm production is forecast to be $59 billion in 2019-20.
That's down from a high of $63.8 billion in 2016-17 and well below the National Farmers’ Federation target of $100 billion by 2030.
Broadacre farm incomes are projected to fall by almost $13 000 to $153 000 this financial year.
ABARES chief commodity analyst Peter Gooday said farm incomes were four per cent lower than the 10-year average.
“In NSW, we are expecting farm cash incomes to be close to zero this year,” he said.
“(It's) as bad as things have been at a state level in the last 20 years — and some regions are substantially worse than the average.
“Australia's livestock industry has been bolstered by a killer pig disease ravaging herds across Asia and Europe.
“Meat and livestock prices have stayed high as African swine fever has decimated China's swine herds, driving red meat prices up and requiring Chinese consumers to look elsewhere.
“Without those good prices, this year would look a lot worse.”
Mr Gooday said coronavirus posed a significant risk, as Chinese demand for agricultural products declines under restrictions put in place to contain the outbreak.
Seafood, particularly rock lobster, and wine are among the most-affected exports.
“ABARES assumes that the effects of the outbreak will be temporary and have limited impact from 2020-21 onwards,” Mr Gooday said.
“Bushfires had a limited impact on agriculture nationally, although smoke did affect the apple industry around the NSW town of Batlow, along with wine regions in Canberra and the Adelaide Hills.”
In 2019-20, Australia will have the lowest number of beef cattle since 1990 and lowest sheep flock since 1904, with production 12 per cent lower than five years ago.
Mr Gooday said over the medium term to 2024-25, a gradual recovery in livestock is expected as herds and flocks rebuild.
“Recovery will take several years and livestock related production in 2024-25 will still be eight per cent below the 2014-15 peak,” he said.
The value of Australia's agricultural exports overall is forecast to fall by 11 per cent to $43 billion in 2019-20, which in real terms is 16 per cent below the record value of exports in 2016-17.
“We can expect grains and oilseeds exports to rebound quickly, but livestock numbers will take some time to recover and for cotton the speed of recovery will depend on how quickly irrigation storages are replenished,” Mr Gooday said.
ABARES also welcomed the signing of the first phase of a trade deal between the United States and China as a sign of easing tensions.
“But the deal contains some very ambitious targets for agricultural imports, and the implications of that for Australian agriculture are not yet clear,” Mr Gooday said.
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