In a newly released report, the specialist agribusiness bank says global fertiliser markets are continuing to feel the effects of disruption to shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while farm profitability pressures and weather uncertainty are constraining demand worldwide.
The bank’s RaboResearch division said Australia had moved beyond the most acute fertiliser supply risks that emerged earlier this year — coinciding with the start of the 2026/27 cropping season.
Local urea prices reached $1500 per tonne at the height of the Middle East disruption, almost doubling from lows recorded earlier in the year, according to Robobank senior analyst Vitor Pistoia.
“Despite this, Australia imported 2.92 million tonnes of urea since November 2025, only around 15 per cent below recent averages, indicating supply shortages have been largely avoided,” Mr Pistoia said.
The report says lower fertiliser demand this season reflected farmers reducing application rates, changing crop rotations and shifting towards less nitrogen-intensive production systems in response to higher costs. In addition, a late seasonal break across northern NSW and southern Queensland expanded winter fallow areas and reduced fertiliser requirements.
Mr Pistoia said seasonal conditions would now become a key determinant of demand, particularly for summer crops.
The report suggests Australian farmers should closely monitor developments in global grain and oilseed markets. While geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions and weather risks continue to create uncertainty, global crop inventories remain historically high, leaving markets better able to absorb supply or demand shocks.
It’s expected production and stocks of key global crops — including wheat, corn and rice — will decline slightly in 2026, although supplies remain comfortable by historical standards.
The main risks for international agricultural markets over the next six to 12 months include the impact of El Niño on global crop production, rising farm input costs and ongoing export challenges from the Black Sea region. These factors could support commodity prices towards the upper end of recent trading ranges.
