Based in Champaign, Illinois, Mr Reardon is part of Nutrien’s global weather team alongside fellow meteorologists Eric Snodgrass and Andrew Pritchard. Together, they monitor weather patterns across multiple continents, helping growers and industry professionals make more informed decisions in an increasingly unpredictable climate.
For Australia, increasing discussion around the potential impact of a strong El Niño throughout 2026 and 2027 has fuelled concern about drought conditions, however Mr Reardon said the seasonal outlook may not be “as doom and gloom” as some are expecting.
“Much of the conversation this year has centred on the strong El Niño in the Pacific and what that might mean for drought,” Mr Reardon said.
“But I don’t think I’m as doom and gloom as some. While I think Australia is going to see some dry weather, especially this spring, it’s not going to be as dry as I think some folks fear.”
El Niño is a climate pattern associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These warmer waters can influence weather systems around the globe, often leading to reduced rainfall across eastern Australia.
Mr Reardon said while Australian farmers should prepare for drier conditions, particularly across the spring growing season, he also saw encouraging signs further ahead.
“El Niño is a fancy term for warmer-than-average water in the central tropical Pacific,” he said.
“When those water temperatures are warmer than normal, historically we tend to see some suppressed rainfall over eastern Australia. That’s where a lot of the concern comes from.
“We see strong correlations with these El Niño events and suppressed spring rainfall so Australian farmers can expect some of that dryness in spring.”
Looking beyond the current season, Mr Reardon said there was a growing possibility conditions could shift again, with forecasts suggesting a return to wetter weather into 2027 and beyond.
“The good news is that some of these strong El Niño patterns tend to bring moisture back as we move into autumn next year. It could be the case that as we go through 2027, we flip back into La Niña,” he said.
“That would shift the conversation around to more moisture, more weather systems coming through and more fronts to keep an eye on.”
Having worked with growers across different regions of the world, Mr Reardon said he continued to be impressed by the resilience and adaptability of Australian farmers.
“Aussie farmers are incredibly resilient,” he said.
“What they deal with in terms of drought, flood, how quickly things change and their willingness to adapt and learn new things is remarkable.”
Through its global weather team, Nutrien combines local knowledge with international expertise to help growers navigate seasonal challenges and make more informed decisions for their operations.
As Australia heads into what could be a significant El Niño period, Mr Reardon’s message is one of preparation rather than panic. While dry conditions are likely in the short term, there are signs the cycle may eventually swing back towards more favourable rainfall conditions.
*Matt Reardon is a senior atmospheric scientist with Nutrien, based in Champaign, Illinois, in the United States. He is part of Nutrien’s global weather team, which monitors weather patterns across multiple continents to help growers and industry professionals make more informed decisions.
