Ag2050 next steps – scenarios to decisions identifies the near-term decisions, uncertainties and practical actions that will shape Australian agriculture in the coming years in the areas of sovereign security, resilience, trusted sustainability reporting and agricultural innovation.
CSIRO program lead Dr Rose Roche said the discussion paper was the next step in a multi-year program aimed at supporting Australian farms to be profitable, productive and sustainable by 2050.
“We started in 2024 working with industry to co-design four evidence-based future scenarios for Australian farming systems, exploring their benefits and trade-offs, which we presented in the Ag2050 Scenarios Report,” said Dr Roche.
“The four scenarios were then used as a lens during an Ag2050 roundtable in March this year involving government, industry, research, regional and Indigenous organisations to identify near-term decisions shaping Australian agriculture.”
The four future scenarios are:
- Regional Ag capitals - a consolidated and technologically advanced sector focused on productivity gains, food and fibre production, and growth in select regional centres.
- Landscape stewardship - a diversified sector balancing food and fibre production with carbon sequestration, biodiversity, ecosystem services and energy production.
- Climate survival - a sector relying on incremental adaptation and diversification to manage climate impacts rather than pursuing transformative change.
- System decline - a sector facing declining productivity and resilience due to delayed and fragmented responses to growing challenges.
Dr Katherine Wynn, who led the development of the scenarios and stakeholder meeting, said the roundtable helped identify where uncertainty was slowing action and where greater coordination, evidence and investment could support better decision-making.
“When the Ag2050 scenarios were developed, many of these challenges were still emerging,” said Dr Wynn.
“Today they are embedded in decision-making across government and industry, making it more important than ever to understand how today's choices are shaping Australia's agricultural future.”
Australian Farm Institute executive director Katie McRobert said the Ag2050 program of work was providing key insights to help guide the future success of Australia’s farm sector.
“The strategic choices that we make today are going to have significant impact in the years leading to 2050,” said Ms McRobert.
“From productivity to land and water use to climate impacts and the growing use of technology to support decision making - there is a lot for the sector to consider.”
