Victoria was the only state in Australia to buck the national trend in the quarter four survey, with farmers in all other states reporting a decline in confidence.
The growing sense of optimism among Victoria’s rural sector was found to be influenced by expectations of improving seasonal conditions, positive commodity prices — particularly in the livestock sectors — and international market opportunities in the year ahead.
The Rabobank survey, completed last month, found net rural confidence in the state to be sitting at 24 per cent (up from 21 per cent in the previous quarter). This is the highest level recorded in Victoria since September 2021.
The largest number of farmers in the state (45 per cent) were expecting farm business conditions to remain stable in the coming 12 months — up from 33 per cent with that view last quarter.
The number expecting conditions to improve sat at 39 per cent — while this had declined slightly from 41 per cent with that view last quarter, it was more than outweighed by the decrease in the number with a negative view on the coming year, which fell to 15 per cent (from 20 per cent previously).
The survey found expectations for a good season continue to be high — cited by 57 per cent of Victorian farmers surveyed (up from 52 per cent last quarter) — while 56 per cent remained positive about commodity prices.
There was an increase in farmers expecting overseas markets/economies to have a positive impact on their businesses — cited by 21 per cent (from 19 per cent previously).
In contrast, concern about drought remained high — nominated by 41 per cent of Victorian respondents (previously 40 per cent) — while rising input costs were a worry for 38 per cent (40 per cent).
