Agriculture Victoria dairy manager Brett Davidson said the late break and patchy rainfall had created significant uncertainty for growers weighing up whether to cut crops for hay or take them through to grain.
“The next six weeks will dictate everything,” Brett said.
“We’re probably two decent rainfalls away from having a decent season, but at the moment we haven’t got them.”
While some paddocks are performing better than others, the state as a whole is tracking behind expectations.
“There are good conditions for growing lucerne as well,” Brett said.
“Some of that gap may be made up by good lucerne crops, but it's still to be seen. As a general rule, protein hay will be in shorter supply, and with cereals, we're expecting them to be down a bit.”
Rainfall over the weekend in Shepparton offered some hope, but he cautioned it wasn’t enough to turn the season around.
“That wasn't enough, unfortunately,” he said.
“The outlook is pointing in a favourable direction, but we haven't been getting some of the rain predicted. We'll have to see over the next few weeks.”
Pricing remains another point of discussion for growers trying to decide their strategy.
Current indicators suggest grain returns could be steady, while hay might provide better value depending on yields and quality.
“For a wheat crop, we're looking at probably about $300 a ton for grain,” Brett said.
“To cut that same crop for hay, you'd get twice as many tons per hectare — two tonnes of hay compared to one tonne of grain, as a rough rule.
“It costs more to make hay than it does to harvest the crop, but it gives a starting point of around $200 to $250 a tonne.”
Livestock markets are also influencing demand as some producers have begun destocking, reducing the number of animals to be fed through the season.
“There are less animals about, too. Some sheep and cattle are being sold off. Even though production will be down, the big unknown is how many fewer animals need to be fed.”
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