Every dairy farmer I know is doing the sums.
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New season milk prices will be announced in the coming weeks, even though early signals suggest they may be close to this year’s levels.
That does not stack up against the increase in the cost of producing milk.
Farmers are looking at feed budgets, fertiliser and fuel bills, interest rates, labour costs and the season ahead.
A price signal that does not recognise the cost of production on farm will put real pressure on milk supply.
No part of the dairy supply chain is escaping higher costs.
Processors, transport operators and retailers are feeling it too.
But the simple fact is this: without milk, there is no dairy supply chain.
If farmers cannot keep producing, the impact does not stop at the farm gate.
That is why farmgate milk price matters.
It is not just a number on a contract.
It determines whether farmers can invest, employ and manage seasonal risk.
The pressure we are feeling in Victoria is being felt in dairy regions across Australia and around the world.
Higher input costs, tighter margins and global instability are not ours alone.
But the longer-term fundamentals remain strong.
The world needs high-quality protein, and the Victorian dairy industry is well-placed to supply it, with skilled farmers, established processing capacity and access to domestic and export markets.
Australian families rely on milk, cheese, yoghurt and other dairy products every day.
But if we want Australian dairy on Australian tables tomorrow, we need to value it properly today.
Australian dairy farmers are not asking for special treatment.
We are asking for fair treatment of the whole supply chain, and pricing that recognises the true cost of producing high-quality food.
Any increase at the retail end must be passed back through the supply chain in a way that reaches farmers with a fair share.
Consumers have a role to play too.
Choosing Australian dairy products is a practical way to support food security, regional jobs and local farm businesses.
It is also a vote of confidence in the quality of what Australian dairy farmers produce.
The latest Australian Dairy Sustainability Scorecard reported that 91 per cent of consumers agree Australia’s dairy industry produces high-quality products, while 87 per cent of regional communities agree dairy is an essential part of their community.
That confidence has been earned, and it should be reflected in how dairy is valued at the checkout and through the supply chain.
But fair value is only part of the equation.
Farmers also need confidence that when they produce and supply milk, they will be paid for it.
The Dairy Code of Conduct has been important, but recent experience has shown some of its limitations.
It has set rules around milk supply agreements, but it has not removed the commercial risk farmers face when processors fail to meet payment obligations.
UDV will continue to advocate for reform, including how dairy farmers can be better protected when processors do not pay on time.
Farmers who have produced and supplied milk should not be left exposed as unsecured creditors.
Dairy farmers are used to tough seasons, but they cannot keep absorbing costs that are not reflected in the price they receive.
If the numbers do not work on farm, they stop working for everyone.
– Bernie Free
United Dairyfarmers of Victoria president