Fire agencies are preparing for an early start to the bushfire season, with weather outlooks predicting drier and warmer than average conditions this winter.
Northern Victoria's fire agencies are warning of an early start to the bushfire season, with below-average rainfall forecast across the state and warming Pacific Ocean temperatures expected to drive hotter and drier than average conditions.
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The warning follows an unusually warm and dry autumn across much of the state, including northern Victoria.
Long-range forecasts indicate the drying trend is likely to continue, with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting warmer and drier than average conditions across Victoria over the coming months.
A key climate driver, the El Niño weather pattern, is not yet active but is developing rapidly.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts an 82 per cent chance of it emerging between May and July.
El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions to south-eastern Australia.
The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council's winter bushfire outlook identified south-west Victoria, central Victoria and west Gippsland as the driest regions heading into spring.
Northern Victoria is currently rated at a normal risk level, though fire agencies warn that dry conditions can cause grasses to dry out earlier than usual, increasing fire risk even in areas not flagged as high danger.
While northern Victoria is not expecting an increased fire risk, it is expected to face an earlier and longer-lasting bushfire season, according to AFAC.
CFA Acting Chief Officer Garry Cook said farmers and landholders in northern Victoria planning winter burn-offs should take extra care this year.
“Parts of Victoria remain unusually dry, and even in cooler conditions, fires can still start and spread if a burn-off gets out of control, particularly when strong winds are involved,” he said.
“The impact of an escaped fire on local communities and emergency services can be significant, so it’s important people register their burn-offs, monitor weather conditions and never leave a fire unattended.”
Forest Fire Management Victoria chief fire officer Chris Hardman said the seasonal outlook pointed to continuing dry and warm conditions heading into spring.
“With the support of communities and working with our emergency sector partners, we will continue to deliver our fuel management program where forest and weather conditions make it safe and suitable to do so, and prepare for spring and a potential early start to the fire season,” he said.
Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch urged all Victorians to review their fire safety plans ahead of spring.
“Emergency services and volunteers remain dedicated to keeping Victorian communities safe and are preparing for the potential of an early bushfire season this year,” he said.
Fire danger ratings can be monitored through the VicEmergency app and website, or via ABC Radio during emergencies.
