Monash IVF has an assisted reproduction market share of about 20 per cent, behind market leader Genea, number two IVFAustralia and number three Adora Fertility.
The Melbourne-based company on Friday warned its underlying net profit for the 2025/26 financial year will fall to between $17 million and $18 million.
"The key driver for the revised FY26 earnings outlook is lower than expected Australian ART (assisted reproductive technology) market activity in the second half," the national operator told the stock exchange on Friday.
The two-time takeover target previously expected a result of around $20 million, against an underlying profit of $27.4 million in 2024/25.
The second half fall-off wasn't expected. In February, Monash was looking forward to steady activity in the main Australian market.
However, Australian stimulated cycle volumes fell 4.7 per cent in the three months to April, from the same period in 2025, according to Medicare data cited by the company.
"The impact of adverse market conditions has continued through May and June," Monash said.
A stimulated cycle is a phase of IVF treatment that involves the use of medications to stimulate the ovaries to produce multiple human eggs.
Once Medicare or other rebates are taken into account, the cost of a standard IVF cycle in Australia is up to $7,500, or up to $15,000 at full-fee clinics.
However, Monash's international operations are growing, with second-half volumes expected to be higher than last year.
The company is in the midst of a cost-cutting drive, ahead of reporting its annual results on August 24.
Monash shares jumped by almost three per cent to 69 cents in afternoon trading as investors appeared to reconsider the prospect of a new takeover bid.
In April, it rejected an unsolicited takeover offer from investment vehicle WHSP Holdings and private equity group Genesis Capital of 90 cents per share, valuing it at around $350 million.
The target said the offer undervalued the company.
It was not the first time WHSP and Genesis Capital had cast their eyes over Monash.
They first pursued the target in November, when Monash was under pressure over an embryo implant scandal.
A patient at a laboratory in Melbourne's southeast was implanted with her own embryo in June 2025 rather than one from her partner, as requested.
Monash later blamed human error and IT limitations for the incident.
Then, WHSP and Genesis offered 80 cents per share for all the stock, which has struggled to trade above 90 cents for more than 12 months.
The would-be predators remain on its share register with a combined 19.6 per cent holding.
About 20,200 babies conceived by IVF are born in Australia each year, according to the latest figures from the Australian and New Zealand Assisted Reproduction database.
This represents about one in 18 children, rising to one in 10 for those born to carriers aged 35 and older.
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