AEGIC chief economist Ross Kingwell said Australian growers would be producing an additional 5.5 million metric tonnes of grain by 2030.
It would be an increase of more than 11 per cent compared to trend production in 2017.
Only about half of the additional grain will be available for export, with the rest going straight to the domestic market — mostly for animal feed.
‘‘In little over a decade, Australia’s population is projected to reach 30 million, a jump of almost five million people,’’ Professor Kingwell said.
‘‘This will cause a big increase in domestic grain demand for feed and food.
“And with 75 per cent of Australia’s consumers currently living in eastern Australia, almost all the extra grain produced in the eastern states will be consumed in those eastern states.’’
Prof Kingwell said by 2030, between 2.4 million and 2.8 million metric tonnes of extra grain would be available for export nationwide.
‘‘Most of this will come from the less populous states of Western Australia and South Australia,’’ he said.
‘‘Export demand in key international grain markets is projected to increase, so we expect the extra grain will find a home.’’
Prof Kingwell said Australia’s increased grain production in 2030 would stem from growers successfully increasing their crop yields in a volatile and changing climate.
‘‘The area planted to crops is not likely to increase towards 2030, so yield increases aided by the skill of farmers, researchers and advisers will be crucial,’’ he said.
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