Significantly larger harvests in every Australian state are forecast to result in a 59 per cent increase in the gross value of grains, oilseeds and pulses compared with the 2019-20 season, leading to a forecast increase in product of 12 per cent to $24 billion.
Although production is unlikely to match the high figures of this year, ABARES predicts cropping regions will benefit from residual soil moisture and replenished water storages
“Broadacre and irrigated crop production will remain highly dependent on variable seasonal conditions,” the Agricultural Overview: March quarter 2021 report from ABARES said.
“Crop production is forecast to sit between recent record highs (2016-17 and 2020-21) and drought-affected lows (2018-19 and 2019-20).
“Prices for crop and crop products are forecast to fall in 2021-22 before resuming trend growth.
“Despite recent tariffs on barley and wine, China is still expected to remain Australia's most significant agricultural trading partner.”
A faster than expected recovery from COVID-19 will also buoy Australia's export opportunities according to ABARES, with favourable seasonal conditions likely to combine with the recovery to deliver higher prices.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology's climate outlook for March to May, there is a high chance of recording close to average March to May rainfall in 2021 across northern Australia and parts of eastern, western and southern Australia.
Across most southern cropping regions, there is a 50 per cent chance of recording close to average March to May rainfall in 2021.
With average or better levels of soil moisture across most cropping regions, this rainfall is likely to be sufficient to support close to average crops as the summer cropping season ends.
By recharging soil moisture profiles, rainfall is also expected to support close to average crop and pasture production as winter crop sowing begins.
Although the 2020-21 summer crop season is forecast to be much improved on the drought-affected season in 2019-20, the latest ABARES crop report expects it will still be below average.
Below average spring rainfall in most summer cropping regions prevented the planting intentions of summer crops from being realised.
Planting in NSW was also constrained by the lack of fallow land following an exceptional winter crop season.
Yield prospects of summer crops are expected to benefit from favourable rainfall outlook and mild temperatures forecast for autumn.
Planting area of summer crops is estimated to be 1.04 million hectares, which is nearly three times larger than in the heavily drought-affected season in 2019-20.
This is a 6.1 per cent downward revision from the forecast ABARES published in the December 2020 Australian crop report, largely reflecting much more unfavourable seasonal conditions during spring than expected.
Summer crop production is forecast to increase to 3.3 million tonnes in 2020-21, which is 13 per cent below the 10-year average to 2019-20, largely because planted area is below average.
