Rabobank’s latest reports suggest that farmland prices will grow by about two per cent in 2026, after a 0.4 per cent climb in 2025.
Farmland prices are still rising, but only just, as higher costs, softer commodity returns and interest rate pressures take the heat out of the market.
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Rabobank’s latest Australian Farmland Price Outlook suggests the boom years have given way to a more steady phase, with land values expected to edge up by about two per cent in 2026.
Growth last year was similarly subdued, with values increasing by just 0.4 per cent, following a 2.6 per cent decline in 2024.
These results sit well below the average annual growth of about 11 per cent seen over the past decade, underlining a clear shift in market conditions.
Research analyst Paul Joules RaboBank said while farmland prices were expected to grow in 2026, it will be at a slower and more steady rate than the decade average.
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Report author and RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules said the sector had moved into a new phase defined by slower, more sustainable growth.
“Our base case forecast expects Australian agricultural land values to continue rising in 2026, with the median price per hectare projected to increase by around two per cent year-on-year,” he said.
The bank’s analysis shows grazing land led recent growth, rising three per cent, while cropping land values slipped by one per cent.
Stronger livestock returns have supported demand for grazing country, while cropping margins have tightened amid softer grain prices and persistently high input costs.
Despite this, local real estate agents said quality properties in reliable districts were still commanding strong prices.
Kevin Hicks Real Estate’s director and rural sales agent Kevin Hicks.
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Julie Mercer
Kevin Hicks Real Estate director Kevin Hicks said the Goulburn Valley remained a sought-after region, thanks to its consistency and established irrigation network.
“The Goulburn Valley is so reliable, which makes it attractive to investors and buyers,” he said.
Recent sales reflect that ongoing interest, particularly for large-scale and well-developed operations.
A 501 hectare broadacre cropping property at Major Plains sold for $11.3 million in March, highlighting demand for sizeable, tightly held holdings, while an 323ha fully operational dairy at Tongala fetched $6.8 million in April.
Recent farmland sale highlights. Source: Kevin Hicks Real Estate
Mr Hicks said dairy properties and well-watered country continued to perform strongly, although some parts of the market were beginning to soften.
Interest in cropping land has eased as input costs climb, while large horticulture assets are becoming harder to shift due to their scale and capital requirements.
Water availability remains a key factor underpinning confidence, with Goulburn Valley entitlement prices staying relatively affordable compared to other regions.
Looking ahead, Rabobank expects farm budgets to remain under pressure, with fertiliser, fuel and borrowing costs continuing to weigh on margins.
Kevin Hicks Real Estate director Kevin Hicks and sales administrator Nicola Bolton.
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Nicholas Spandler
Further interest rate increases could dampen demand and slow transaction activity.
Seasonal conditions will also play a role, with forecasts pointing to a potential El Niño pattern that could reduce rainfall across key production regions.
Although the rapid gains of recent years seem to have eased, farmland is still a solid long-term investment.
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