The survey, released on September 14, found Victorian farmer sentiment rose considerably in the past quarter, with more than one third of the state’s farmers expecting business conditions to improve in the coming year, while more than half expect a continuation of the current excellent conditions.
Very few Victorian farmers forecast conditions to deteriorate.
Confidence is strong across most regions and commodity groups, with Victorian grain growers driving much of the upswing in sentiment, while dairy farmers were also very positive about commodity prices over the year ahead.
Rabobank regional manager for southern Victoria Deborah Maskell-Davies said seasonal and business conditions were both tracking well for the state’s farm sector, with sustained high agri-commodity prices and favourable weather conditions driving profitability and optimism.
Ms Maskell-Davies said Victoria had recorded a particularly wet winter, which — combined with forecasts for good spring rainfall — had set up producers well for the remainder of the year.
“Dairy, beef, sheep and cropping farmers are all experiencing buoyant prices, and many farmers have enjoyed quite a sustained period of profitability,” she said.
“After a slow start, crops are now starting to take off and grain growers are forecasting average to above-average yields.
“The continuation of such favourable conditions is really allowing farmers to consolidate their debt, purchase more land to expand their enterprises, and upgrade equipment and infrastructure in their businesses.
“It really is a phenomenal time for the state’s farmers, and any concerns about the impact of COVID-19 restrictions are being offset by these other positive factors.”
Ms Maskell-Davies said continuing good milk prices, alongside favourable pasture and fodder-making conditions, plus sound water allocations, were all helping sustain the positive dairy sentiment.
She noted, however, that labour concerns continued for dairy farmers and sourcing people to work in intensive industries generally was becoming difficult.
The survey reveals farmers in the Murray-Goulburn Valley region, the High Country region and the Wimmera/Mallee were particularly buoyed by the season, however Ms Maskell-Davies said parts of the Mallee were still dry and spring rain would be “essential” for production in that area.
According to the survey, farmers in the Murray-Goulburn Valley and Wimmera/Mallee were the most positive in the state about the year ahead — with 46 per cent expecting conditions to improve.
The survey, completed last month, shows 34 per cent of the state’s farmers think conditions can improve even further over the year ahead (up from 25 per cent last quarter) while 57 per cent expect current conditions to remain. Just six per cent (down from nine per cent) expect conditions to worsen.
Of the small proportion expecting conditions to worsen, very few attributed their negative sentiment to COVID-19.
The survey recorded a significant jump in confidence among the state’s grain growers since the June survey, with 63 per cent tipping an improvement in business conditions (up from 22 per cent last quarter), while 37 per cent of growers expect similar conditions to last year.
Ms Maskell-Davies said “a bit more sun” would be welcomed by grain producers as winter had been largely wet and overcast, and farmers were eager to see crops finish off well in the approach to harvest in late spring and early summer.
The survey saw sentiment also improve in the sheep sector, with 70 per cent expecting similar conditions to last year, while 22 per cent expect conditions to improve.
Business confidence remained strong among beef producers, with 33 per cent expecting business conditions to improve and 56 per cent anticipating a continuation of current conditions over the next year.
