Northern Victorian cattle and sheep producers can expect prices to remain high through the second half of 2026, even as export headwinds and a drying outlook temper the market, according to Bendigo Bank's Australian Agriculture Mid-Year Outlook report released last week.
The report found widespread May rainfall across eastern Australia had encouraged producers to retain cattle rather than sell, tightening market-ready supply for the remainder of the year.
That support is expected to be outweighed by softer export conditions, with China's 55 per cent out-of-quota tariff and similar restrictions in South Korea forecast to cut Australian beef volumes.
Cattle prices are tipped to ease modestly from recent near-record highs as a result, though tight local supply should prevent too sharp of a fall.
For sheep producers, the national flock has shrunk 9.5 per cent since its 2023 peak, according to the report, with sheep yardings down 30.7 per cent year-to-date.
Lamb and mutton prices are forecast to stay near record levels through the back half, in the range of $10.50 to $13 per kilo for lamb and about $8 per kilo for mutton.
Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Relationship Director for Victoria Matt Gill said June rainfall had given producers confidence to begin restocking, but rebuilding numbers would take time after consecutive dry years.
The bank's report flagged an El Niño-influenced spring as the key swing factor for the region, with drier conditions potentially limiting pasture growth and slowing the pace of herd and flock recovery across northern Victoria.
