The central bank is worried inflation may be stronger than expected, driven partly by price growth in the services economy, which includes sectors such as healthcare, finance and hospitality.
Inflation data for the September quarter, to be released at the end of October, will be crucial to understanding the future direction of Australia's economy, the bank's board said on Tuesday.
"Recent data suggested that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than had been expected," the meeting minutes warn.
The RBA kept the official cash rate on hold at 3.6 per cent in its September meeting, to the frustration of mortgage holders.
A rate cut at November's meeting on Melbourne Cup day was still a possibility, but the data pointed to another hold, Westpac Group chief economist Luci Ellis saidÂ
"The economy could be in for something like a re-run of late 2023, when an upside surprise in September quarter inflation was followed by a downside surprise in the December quarter," she said.
"The odds that the RBA cuts in November are, at this point, below 50 per cent, but still a long way from zero.
"The data flow could change things again."
The Reserve Bank's meeting minutes warned of "considerable uncertainty" around the financial outlook as China's economy continues to struggle and President Donald Trump's tariffs take a toll on the United States' economy.
The RBA believes Australia's jobs market remains "a little tight," meaning the number of people out of work could tick up slightly over the coming months, but that forecast was also uncertain.
Because of the unclear outlook, board members believed there was "no need" for an immediate cut to the cash rate.
"Looking ahead, members noted that it was appropriate for the Board's decisions to remain cautious and data dependent," the minutes say, indicating the bank may not be in any rush to announce its next rate cut.
21°C