Home buyers gain foothold as downturn runs into spring

But with house prices tumbling across in the nation, two months ago the 39-year-old and her husband decided to take advantage of the deflating market.

"We saw how depressed the market was and we're like, this is our opportunity to buy in the area that we want to live in," Ms Ongarello told AAP.

House prices in Melbourne have fallen for the third consecutive quarter, slumping 3.3 per cent in the September quarter.

That downturn has trickled into markets nationwide for just the second time on record, according to figures from Domain's September Quarter 2026 House Price Report.

Weakened buyer confidence has driven house prices down across every capital city for the first time in 15 years and the second time ever, the data shows.

"Geographically, the downturn has broadened, but also across property types with houses and units also falling," Domain chief residential economist Nicola Powell told AAP.

"Homes are taking longer to sell, there is greater scope to negotiate, and sellers are having to be more realistic about price expectations."

Perth recorded the sharpest drop, with house prices falling a record 4.7 per cent, while Brisbane and Adelaide also logged their steepest quarterly house price falls on record.

Melbourne remains in the million-dollar club, marginally, with a media price of $1.014 million after experiencing its largest quarterly house price fall in four years.

"Ultimately we could see Melbourne close the year with the median house price below a million dollars," Dr Powell said.

House prices in Sydney are at a two-year low after falling 4.7 per cent in the September quarter, to $1.66 million.

Higher interest rates, persistent cost-of-living pressures, and changes to housing investment tax policy were driving the reductions, Dr Powell said.

"What this has really layered is weak sentiment across buyers in particular," she said.

Reduced borrowing capacity is also stifling sales, the data suggests.

Ms Ongarello said her bank's lending calculation was revised after September's interest rate rise, which left her with a home loan offer $100,000 lower than the initial quote.

"We've missed out a couple of times now on being a successful bidder because of that," she said.

While the statistics show weakened confidence from buyers and vendors, the diminishing market has created the best start to spring for prospective purchasers such as Ms Ongarello in years, according to Dr Powell.

"We are in a buyer's market and many of our capital cities have got the highest levels of supply that they've seen in a number of years," Dr Powell said.

"For buyers with secure finances and the capacity to transact, that creates opportunities that have been difficult to find in recent years."

Prices could continue to fall for many months to come, Dr Powell said.

"Something needs to shift to alter the confidence to transact, and I cannot envisage the confidence changing until we see an interest rate cut or even the discussion that interest rate reductions are on the horizon," she said.

"And ultimately that prospect is in the latter part of next year."

Morgan Stanley economists agreed, predicting the market to bottom out in the second half of 2027.

They expect the downturn to run as deep as 15 per cent from peak to trough.