NSW hospitals are projected to have 1700 patients waiting for federally-funded aged care or NDIS support by 2027 - an increase of around 700 in just two years.
Australia-wide, some 3600 are trapped in aged care bed block - up from about 2700 in mid-2025 - with around 1400 of those alone in Queensland.
NSW health minister Ryan Park on Wednesday warned the issue could become catastrophic, saying the equivalent of one in every eight accessible beds in NSW emergency departments was medically fit to leave but otherwise could not.
That figure rose from about one in 10 in 2025.
"If we see a winter where 1700 beds are taken out of the system each day, the pressure on busy hospitals ... could be simply too much," Mr Park told reporters.
"We're looking at what we can do to keep patients out, we're looking at what we can do when they are in to get them out as quickly as possible."
On Friday, state and territory ministers met to pressure the Commonwealth - jointly responsible for aged care funding - to back more home care options.
They said funding 5000 more aged care beds annually fell short of what was needed to alleviate bed-block.
Despite the issues facing NSW Health, Mr Park welcomed new data showing improvements in emergency department wait times.
Time for treatment in emergency improved on the April quarter of 2025, according to Bureau of Health Information data released on Wednesday.
However, still only just over two-thirds of patients were seen on time.
"We want to try and get through patients as quickly as possible, and that's the accountability and responsibility that I have and our staff has," Mr Park said.
Federal Health minister Mark Butler stared down calls for urgent intervention and referred to his government's previous investment, adding the aging population was driving unprecedented demand for healthcare.
"We release our budgets and our budget updates in May and December (but) the increases we have made to aged care in our time in office have been eye-watering," he said.
Australian Medical Association NSW president Fred Betros called the latest health data about rising demand a warning sign, saying the obvious answer was to invest in preventative healthcare.
"We need more doctors and staffed beds today, alongside investment in prevention and early intervention to reduce avoidable demand tomorrow," he said.
"The system needs help now ... patients cannot keep paying the price for governments' failure to plan.
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