The nation's record rooftop solar adoption could generate more than 1.1 million tonnes of waste by 2035, it found, despite the potential to recover more than $1 billion from end-of-life panels.
RMIT University and global think tank RAND released the findings from a report on Thursday, which recommended introducing national recycling and reuse rules by mid-2027 and funding commercial recycling facilities by 2028.
The findings come one day after representatives from the federal environment department revealed a $24.7 million national solar panel recycling pilot had been stalled since May due to a single complaint.
The international study analysed challenges and opportunities posed by Australia's widespread use of solar panels, including projected waste volumes, recycling costs, and economic returns.
It found Australia would face a wave of solar waste from decommissioned panels in the 2030s, rising to 1.1 million tonnes of cumulative end-of-life panels by 2035.
Voluntary industry recycling rules had already proven inadequate, it said, and a mandatory product stewardship scheme should be crafted by mid-2027.
The scheme should be established in 2028, including minimum recycling efficiency standards, and should be accompanied by financial incentives to create commercial solar panel recycling and reuse facilities.
More than $1 billion worth of materials could be extracted from the panels by 2035, researchers estimated, including silver, copper, silicon and aluminium.
Recovering these materials could also create 9.2 jobs for every 10,000 tonnes of waste, which RMIT Professor Xavier Mulet said represented a substantial opportunity.
"The longer we wait, the more difficult and expensive it becomes to capture those benefits," he said.
"Every panel that ends up in landfill represents a lost opportunity to recover critical materials, support local manufacturing and create jobs."
The government should also establish a national marketplace for used solar panels, the report said, as between 45 and 65 per cent of decommissioned panels were still functional and only 10 per cent were tested.
A recent Queensland trial found panels were retired after 12 years on average, rather than their expected life span of up to 25 years.
Australia had the potential to lead the world in solar technology recycling and reuse if it acted swiftly, lead researcher and RMIT environmental engineering lead Assoc Prof Ylias Sabri said.
"Australia has been a global leader in rooftop solar adoption but we now need to become a leader in managing what happens when those systems reach the end of their life," he said.
More than 4.5 million solar systems have been installed in Australia since 2001, according to the Clean Energy Regulator, including more than 247,000 in 2026.
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