Premier Jeremy Rockliff is putting a rosy spin on what is expected to be Tasmania's largest ever borrowings in Thursday's state budget.
Last November, Treasurer Eric Abetz announced a $1.1 billion deficit and $5 billion in net debt, with a safe-as-houses prediction this year's set of books will show ballooning debt.
On Wednesday, Mr Rockliff pointed to Tasmania's performance against national economic benchmarks as a possible route out of the red.
"We will see in the budget evidence of growth in our economy, which is not dependent on excessive population growth, but rather a result of the clever people we have in Tasmania," he told parliament.
Mr Rockliff said Treasury had forecast around eight per cent growth over the next four years in per capita terms.
Per capita growth is used to measure economic output per person, and is commonly used to strip out population gains or losses from growth metrics.
For the past two years, Tasmania has led the nation on this benchmark: growing by 0.7 per cent last financial year, and one per cent in 2023/24, when it was the only growing state.
The Institute of Public Affairs has also offered Tasmania a glowing economic report card, listing the Apple Isle behind only Western Australia for performance in 2026, rating Tasmania highly for its tax burden, productivity growth, rental costs and energy costs.
The Treasury projections mean Tasmania, already at the top of the class, would surge further ahead.
Mr Rockliff said they showed Tasmania was "not an economy propped up only by growth in population, but through the determination and ingenuity of Tasmanians".
However, on other benchmarks, the island state is most definitely reliant: including GST distribution per person.
All eyes on Thursday will be fixated on how the government tackles the spiralling debt problem, which will include cuts across many branches of government.
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