The state recorded 22,429 virus cases and six deaths on Monday, a drop of almost 6000 cases from the previous day and about 12,000 fewer than the daily figure a week ago.
However, with one in three PCR tests coming back positive, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said case numbers may not yet have peaked.
"There's a lot of uncertainty, but I do think we're reasonably close to a peak, if we're not at peak already," he told reporters on Monday.
"South Africa peaked in a reasonably short amount of time, the UK looks to have peaked, some states in the US - New York, New Jersey - look to be peaking with their case numbers.
"But we've got a high proportion of PCR tests coming back positive, so that does mean there are a lot of people out there who don't know their status."
With so many undetected COVID-19 cases in the state, Professor Sutton pleaded for people to continue to get tested and get a vaccine booster when eligible.
The number of patients in hospital with the virus has been growing daily, rising by 115 to a record 1229 patients on Monday. Intensive care figures are also rising, with 129 patients in ICU and 38 on ventilation.
Prof Sutton warned hospitalisation numbers will continue to rise, as he predicted a peak may not be reached for a month.
He said there was a "lag" of about two weeks between case numbers and hospital admissions, and three weeks for that to translate to ICU figures.
"That will peak sometime in February, maybe mid-February, but it's hard to know until we really see what the peak in case numbers is going to be," he said.
Meanwhile, Deputy Premier James Merlino said COVID-related staffing absences were impacting every sector in Victoria.
"The challenge of staff absences will be really the issue of the first half of this year, as a result of the widespread impact of the Omicron variant," he said.
Asked if close contact isolation rules could be eased for more industries, including for pharmacy workers, he deferred to national cabinet.
Three million rapid antigen tests are being distributed to essential workers in health and aged care, disability and emergency sectors from Monday, the first to arrive from a bulk order of 44 million.
People with pre-existing health conditions and 60 community organisations will also be prioritised.
Prof Sutton flagged another five million RATs would arrive in the state "very soon".
The opposition welcomed the additional tests, but criticised the Andrews government for its lack of planning.
"The state government was told home testing would be available November 1, yet they did nothing to prepare and manage the COVID response," Opposition health spokeswoman Georgie Crozier said.
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