In its annual Australian Agricultural Land Price Outlook, agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank says the robust growth in agricultural property prices witnessed during the past five years has slowed, with 2020 signalling “the beginning of a new phase in land markets across the country”.
The report's author, agricultural analyst Wes Lefroy, said there had been lower agricultural land price growth in 2019 than in the previous two years.
“For the time being, the aggressive rise in land prices is behind us, and we are expecting a period of low, if any, growth in 2020. Ultimately though, this will vary by quality, region and production type,” he said.
While there will likely still be a number of “marquee” sales in some locations — especially for high-rainfall properties with scale — median agricultural property prices in some regions may even see a contraction during the coming 18 months, the report says.
However, macro-economic factors such as low interest rates and a forecast weakening in the Australian dollar — along with the overall healthy state of farm balance sheets across the country — will prevent a major downward correction.
“And if agricultural land prices can hold the significant gains they have made over the past five years in the year ahead, through the worst economic crisis we are facing in decades due to the coronavirus pandemic, this will be a great result for landholders,” Mr Lefroy said.
For buyers of agricultural land, he said the story was "very complicated”.
“The median price in some regions can be double, or even triple, that of other regions with similar productivity and seasonal variability,” Mr Lefroy said.
The report says a number of factors are contributing to the slowing rate of growth in the agricultural land market.
Chief among these is the trailing effect of recent years of drought, with the impact on land prices often delayed — bringing periods of very low, if any, land price growth, even when rainfall returns.