BOM forecasts a warm winter

Jun 10, 2024

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Winter days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across Australia, with a high chance of both days and nights being in the highest 20 per cent of historical temperatures.

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That’s the long-range winter forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology.

BOM says for most of Australia, there is no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall for winter.

The forecast suggests above average rainfall is likely over parts of the west, some central southern areas of the mainland and Queensland's North Tropical Coast.

Rainfall for parts of eastern Australia is likely to be below average in June, while in July and August, rainfall for parts of the interior is likely to be above average.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, with BOM’s ENSO outlook set at La Niña Watch. This does not guarantee a La Niña will develop, only that there are some signs it may develop later in the year.

Rainfall outlook

BOM says large parts of Australia are likely to see rainfall that is typical for the June to August period.

Above average rainfall is likely for parts of the west and some central southern areas.

In June, for much of Australia, there is no strong signal towards above average or below average rainfall for the month, however below average June rainfall is likely (60 to 70 per cent chance) for parts of eastern Australia.

For June to August, BOM says we can expect the typical range of winter rainfall.

The only places likely to have above average rainfall are parts of the west of Western Australia and some central southern areas of the mainland, as well as Queensland's North Tropical Coast.

Temperature outlook

BOM says June to August maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80 per cent chance) to be above average across Australia.

There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures across the continent, with four times the normal likelihood across much of eastern, southern and far northern Australia.

Unusually high maximum temperatures are defined as the warmest 20 per cent of June to August days between 1981 and 2018.

Large areas of the country are very likely (greater than 80 per cent chance) to have unusually high minimum temperatures during winter.

Unusually high minimum temperatures are defined as the warmest 20 per cent of June to August nights between 1981 and 2018.

By McPherson Media Group