The stats that matter for GVL premiership glory

The 2025 finals campaign presents as one of the most even yet though, with each club having genuine credentials towards its premiership chances.

One of the key metrics that goes under the radar in determining premiership success is having an efficient scoring rate.

This critical statistic to every flag fancy, both at country football level and the nation’s top flight, can be analysed through the rate of scoring shots per inside 50 entry, which is the percentage of goals and behinds tallied from every forward arc delivery.

For instance, scoring 20 times from 40 inside 50 entries is a scoring rate of 50 per cent.

In the AFL, the statistic is a true indicator of the most dangerous attacking teams in the competition - it demonstrates that even if the club can’t generate a significant number of inside 50s, its forward mix still has the efficiency to convert a winning score.

Since 2020, eight of the 10 AFL grand finalists have ranked inside the competition’s top three, and four of the five premiers’ scoring rate has been four per cent better than the AFL average of that season.

To scale that on a GVL level, it means the top two for scoring efficiency are most likely to play in a grand final, while the select teams that average a rate four per cent greater than league average remains indicative of premiership success.

In 2024, Echuca and Shepparton were the top two sides and both played in the decider, as they scored from 56.4 and 52 per cent of their inside 50 entries through the season.

The league average in that season was a touch over 48 per cent, meaning only the Murray Bombers qualified for the predictive measure of premiership success, and lo and behold, they were the team to raise the cup.

However, Echuca won the flag against these odds in 2023, albeit the Murray Bombers were only slightly outside the threshold.

In 2023, the average scoring rate from inside 50 entries was far lower than 2024 at 43.1 per cent, and only Seymour (51.1 per cent) and Kyabram (47.1 per cent) could claim a spot in this metric’s apparent premiership window.

Kyabram would finish runners-up, continuing the trend of sides ranked in the top two making the big dance, but Echuca would win the flag while averaging a scoring rate of 46.8 per cent, 0.3 per cent outside the window.

Had Echuca averaged just half a score more per game, or had nine more scoring shots across the 18-game home and away season, the Murray Bombers would have qualified for this stat’s premiership window.

Nevertheless, in 2025 this metric implies Echuca could still be in the hunt for a fourth consecutive flag.

Despite a lacklustre close out of the season to finish in fourth, the Murray Bombers are one of two sides who average a SS/50 rate four per cent greater than the league average of 48 per cent, with a season scoring rate of 52 per cent, behind minor premiers Kyabram who boast a rate of 53.6.

The remaining clubs are all outside this statistic’s premiership window - Mansfield, Shepparton and the Shepparton Swans all have an average rate of 50.9 per cent, while Rochester’s sits at 48 per cent.

But there is another arguably more reliable means of determining clubs inside the premiership window.

Again at both AFL and GVL level, ranking inside the top third of the competition for most points scored and least points conceded is a near guaranteed indicator of genuine premiership credentials.

This isn’t a simple glance at percentage either, it’s a separate analysis of points for and against - Rochester may boast the second-best percentage in the league this season, but it isn’t ranked inside the top third (or top four clubs) for points for.

In the AFL, 18 of the past 20 premiers have ranked inside the top third (top six clubs) for their attacking and defensive prowess.

Additionally, all of the last 20 premiers have at least ranked in the top six for points against.

From a GVL perspective though, there isn’t any leniency.

Every premier in the past decade has ranked in the top four for both points for and against, but with such dominant eras from Echuca and Kyabram, we dove deeper to see if even the second-best clubs that season could get away with one fault on either end of the ground.

However, the grand final window remains the same - every runner-up in the past decade has also ranked in the top four both points for and against.

So what does that mean for 2025?

Out of this year’s finalists, only two can make the claim of ranking inside the league’s top four for points for and against - Kyabram and Shepparton.

After a shock loss to Seymour in the final round, the latter is placed sixth on the GVL table, requiring a flawless run to book a place in the decider.

However, only Mansfield in 2018 has won a final, let alone made the grand final, from sixth place in the last decade, suggesting a club not ranked inside the top four for both metrics could make the decider for the first time in over 10 seasons.

That’s not to say it can’t be done though, with Seymour’s run-the-gauntlet 2012 finals series booking it a shock grand final appearance despite finishing sixth with a 9-9 record.

As for the Swans, Eagles and Tigers, recent history indicates they’ll need to defy the odds, but they won’t need to break records to claim an elusive flag.

In 2013, Shepparton United made the grand final from fifth, ranking first for points for but sixth for points against.

In 2025, both Mansfield and the Swans rank inside the top four for points for (second and third respectively) but outside the window for points against (sixth and fifth respectively).

It’s been over a decade since a grand final appearance of the kind has been achieved, but the fact it has been done before should provide belief to either playing group.

As for Rochester, it can bank faith in the double chance.

Only two clubs have won the flag since 2015 despite not winning the minor premiership - both finished the home and away season in second.

With fortunate fixturing providing Rochester a home qualifying final, now is as good a season as ever to continue the second-placed trend and bring home the club’s first flag in 17 years.