Mark Bailey released the first outlook for 2025-26 seasonal determinations on Monday, at the same time declaring no change to the current 2024-25 water availability.
The 2024-25 irrigation season ends on May 15 and the 2025-26 season starts on August 15.
Dr Bailey said the reserves established this season provided a good foundation for water availability in most systems next season.
“The Murray, Goulburn, and Loddon systems should begin the 2025-26 water year with seasonal determinations of about 25 per cent high-reliability water shares or better,” he said.
“This is based on the availability of reserves and estimated use through the remainder of 2024-25.”
Dr Bailey said the Campaspe system should receive 100 per cent HRWS on July 1, under all inflow conditions due to the reserves established this year.
“As annual systems, the seasonal determinations in the Broken and Bullarook systems rely on catchment conditions and the volume of carried over allocation,” he said.
“We anticipate both the Broken and Bullarook systems starting 2025-26 at zero per cent HRWS.
“Inflow conditions during 2025-26 will determine how seasonal determinations change during the year.
“Average inflow conditions should allow the Murray, Broken, Goulburn, Loddon and Bullarook systems to reach seasonal determinations of 100 per cent HRWS by mid-October 2025.”
Dr Bailey said the risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2025-26 would depend on how much water is released from the storages in the next few months to meet demands.
“The risk of spill in the Murray system is expected to be about 50 per cent at the start of July 2025.
“The risk of spill in the Goulburn system is expected to be about 30 per cent and 45 per cent in the Campaspe system in early 2025-26.
“Customers in these systems should factor the risk of spill into their plans for the remaining months of 2024-25.”
Tables that summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems are available at: https://nvrm.net.au/
No change to allocations
Dr Bailey said seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems are unchanged at 100 per cent of HRWS.
The Bullarook system remains at 12 per cent HRWS.
The Campaspe system is unchanged at 100 per cent HRWS and 48 per cent low‑reliability water shares.
In the Broken system, seasonal determinations remain at the maximum available 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent LRWS.
Dr Bailey said there was no additional water available to increase seasonal determinations.
“There has been no significant rainfall across the catchment areas in recent weeks.
“The dry and warm conditions have meant evaporation and operating losses remain close to our estimates.”
Trading opportunities
Allocation trade from NSW to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 Gl or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent.
The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 Gl of net trade from NSW to Victoria.
Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability at: https://waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading
Customers can monitor trading opportunities from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the choke at: https://www.mdba.gov.au/water-use/water-markets/water-trade/barmah-choke-trade-balance
Upcoming water announcements
The next 2024-25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday, March 3.
The 2025-26 seasonal determination outlooks will be updated on Thursday, May 15.
The first 2025-26 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday, July 1, and will include an updated outlook and an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.
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